Using R-based VOStat as a low resolution spectrum analysis tool

We describe here an online software suite VOStat written mainly for the Virtual Observatory, a novel structure in which astronomers share terabyte scale data. Written mostly in the public-domain statistical computing language and environment R, it can do a variety of statistical analysis on multidimensional, multi-epoch data with errors. Included are techniques which allow astronomers to start with multi-color data in the form of low-resolution spectra and select special kinds of sources in a variety of ways including color outliers. Here we describe the tool and demonstrate it with an example from Palomar-QUEST, a synoptic sky survey

Effective Radii and Color Gradients in Radio Galaxies

We present de Vaucouleurs' effective radii in B and R bands for a sample of Molonglo Reference Catalogue radio galaxies and a control sample of normal galaxies. We use the ratio of the scale lengths in the two bands as an indicator to show that the radio galaxies tend to have excess of blue color in their inner region much more frequently than the control galaxies. We show that the scale length ratio is a useful indicator of radial color variation even when the conventional color gradient is too noisy to serve the purpose.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, (LaTeX: aaspp4, epsfig), to appear in ApJL 199

Towards an Automated Classification of Transient Events in Synoptic Sky Surveys

We describe the development of a system for an automated, iterative, real-time classification of transient events discovered in synoptic sky surveys. The system under development incorporates a number of Machine Learning techniques, mostly using Bayesian approaches, due to the sparse nature, heterogeneity, and variable incompleteness of the available data. The classifications are improved iteratively as the new measurements are obtained. One novel feature is the development of an automated follow-up recommendation engine, that suggest those measurements that would be the most advantageous in terms of resolving classification ambiguities and/or characterization of the astrophysically most interesting objects, given a set of available follow-up assets and their cost functions. This illustrates the symbiotic relationship of astronomy and applied computer science through the emerging discipline of AstroInformatics.Comment: Invited paper, 15 pages, to appear in Statistical Analysis and Data Mining (ASA journal), ref. proc. CIDU 2011 conf., eds. A. Srivasatva & N. Chawla, in press (2011

The Next Decade of Astroinformatics and Astrostatistics

Over the past century, major advances in astronomy and astrophysics have been largely driven by improvements in instrumentation and data collection. With the amassing of high quality data from new telescopes, and especially with the advent of deep and large astronomical surveys, it is becoming clear that future advances will also rely heavily on how those data are analyzed and interpreted. New methodologies derived from advances in statistics, computer science, and machine learning are beginning to be employed in sophisticated investigations that are not only bringing forth new discoveries, but are placing them on a solid footing. Progress in wide-field sky surveys, interferometric imaging, precision cosmology, exoplanet detection and characterization, and many subfields of stellar, Galactic and extragalactic astronomy, has resulted in complex data analysis challenges that must be solved to perform scientific inference. Research in astrostatistics and astroinformatics will be necessary to develop the state-of-the-art methodology needed in astronomy. Overcoming these challenges requires dedicated, interdisciplinary research. We recommend: (1) increasing funding for interdisciplinary projects in astrostatistics and astroinformatics; (2) dedicating space and time at conferences for interdisciplinary research and promotion; (3) developing sustainable funding for long-term astrostatisics appointments; and (4) funding infrastructure development for data archives and archive support, state-of-the-art algorithms, and efficient computing

Understanding extreme quasar optical variability with CRTS: I. Major AGN flares

There is a large degree of variety in the optical variability of quasars and it is unclear whether this is all attributable to a single (set of) physical mechanism(s). We present the results of a systematic search for major flares in AGN in the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey as part of a broader study into extreme quasar variability. Such flares are defined in a quantitative manner as being atop of the normal, stochastic variability of quasars. We have identified 51 events from over 900,000 known quasars and high probability quasar candidates, typically lasting 900 days and with a median peak amplitude of $\Delta m = 1.25$ mag. Characterizing the flare profile with a Weibull distribution, we find that nine of the sources are well described by a single-point single-lens model. This supports the proposal by Lawrence et al. (2016) that microlensing is a plausible physical mechanism for extreme variability. However, we attribute the majority of our events to explosive stellar-related activity in the accretion disk: superluminous supernovae, tidal disruption events, and mergers of stellar mass black holes.Comment: 25 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

A systematic search for close supermassive black hole binaries in the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey

Hierarchical assembly models predict a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. These are not resolvable by direct imaging but may be detectable via periodic variability (or nanohertz frequency gravitational waves). Following our detection of a 5.2 year periodic signal in the quasar PG 1302-102 (Graham et al. 2015), we present a novel analysis of the optical variability of 243,500 known spectroscopically confirmed quasars using data from the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) to look for close (< 0.1 pc) SMBH systems. Looking for a strong Keplerian periodic signal with at least 1.5 cycles over a baseline of nine years, we find a sample of 111 candidate objects. This is in conservative agreement with theoretical predictions from models of binary SMBH populations. Simulated data sets, assuming stochastic variability, also produce no equivalent candidates implying a low likelihood of spurious detections. The periodicity seen is likely attributable to either jet precession, warped accretion disks or periodic accretion associated with a close SMBH binary system. We also consider how other SMBH binary candidates in the literature appear in CRTS data and show that none of these are equivalent to the identified objects. Finally, the distribution of objects found is consistent with that expected from a gravitational wave-driven population. This implies that circumbinary gas is present at small orbital radii and is being perturbed by the black holes. None of the sources is expected to merge within at least the next century. This study opens a new unique window to study a population of close SMBH binaries that must exist according to our current understanding of galaxy and SMBH evolution.Comment: 29 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS - this version contains extended table and figur

Connecting the time domain community with the Virtual Astronomical Observatory

The time domain has been identified as one of the most important areas of astronomical research for the next decade. The Virtual Observatory is in the vanguard with dedicated tools and services that enable and facilitate the discovery, dissemination and analysis of time domain data. These range in scope from rapid notifications of time-critical astronomical transients to annotating long-term variables with the latest modeling results. In this paper, we will review the prior art in these areas and focus on the capabilities that the VAO is bringing to bear in support of time domain science. In particular, we will focus on the issues involved with the heterogeneous collections of (ancillary) data associated with astronomical transients, and the time series characterization and classification tools required by the next generation of sky surveys, such as LSST and SKA.Comment: Submitted to Proceedings of SPIE Observatory Operations: Strategies, Processes and Systems IV, Amsterdam, 2012 July 2-

A possible close supermassive black-hole binary in a quasar with optical periodicity

Quasars have long been known to be variable sources at all wavelengths. Their optical variability is stochastic, can be due to a variety of physical mechanisms, and is well-described statistically in terms of a damped random walk model. The recent availability of large collections of astronomical time series of flux measurements (light curves) offers new data sets for a systematic exploration of quasar variability. Here we report on the detection of a strong, smooth periodic signal in the optical variability of the quasar PG 1302-102 with a mean observed period of 1,884 $\pm$ 88 days. It was identified in a search for periodic variability in a data set of light curves for 247,000 known, spectroscopically confirmed quasars with a temporal baseline of $\sim9$ years. While the interpretation of this phenomenon is still uncertain, the most plausible mechanisms involve a binary system of two supermassive black holes with a subparsec separation. Such systems are an expected consequence of galaxy mergers and can provide important constraints on models of galaxy formation and evolution.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures. Published online by Nature on 7 January 201